Saturday, January 23, 2010

Climate Modeling: Ocean Oscillations + Solar Activity R²=.96

Expanding upon the last post, the "sunspot integral" (accumulated departure in sunspots v. the monthly mean of 41.2 for the observational period of sunspots 1610-2009) shows good correlation with the temperature record. Excellent correlation (R²=.96!) with temperature is obtained by adding to the sunspot integral the most significant ocean oscillations (the PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation + AMO- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation*3). Various other combinations and permutations of these factors compared to the temperature record have been posted at: 1 2 3 4 5 6, although I have not located others with a correlation coefficient of this magnitude. Contrast the R² of .96 from this simple model (near a perfect correlation coefficient (R²) of 1) vs. the poor correlation  (R²=.44) of CO2 levels vs. temperature.



Also see: Climate Change: Driven by the Oceans and not Human Activity

1 comment:

  1. Awesome . A REAL climate model..!! That works

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