Monday, January 7, 2013

New paper finds Pacific tropical cyclones coincided with solar activity

A new paper published in the Journal of Climate examines landfalling tropical cyclones along the eastern Pacific coast between the 16th and 20th centuries and finds the most persistent cycle lasted ~ 12 years and coincided with the ~11-12 year solar cycle.


LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST BETWEEN THE 16th AND 20th CENTURIES

Marni Pazos*
Graduate Program in Earth Sciences, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Blanca Mendoza
Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F. C.P. 04510
Abstract
Numerous studies have been conducted to document long term trends in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, the eastern Pacific has not received as much attention as other basins. Here we attempt the identification of TC formation in the Mexican eastern Pacific ocean before 1950. Using bibliographical and historical file consultation, we constructed a catalog of events related to intense storms and possible TCs that made landfall in the Mexican Pacific coasts. Between 1536 and 1948 we found a total of 119 events related to TCs. Then, using the Saffir-Simpson scale and the climatology of the region as the criteria to evaluate each event, we found 85 TCs. Furthermore, we constructed a historical time series of TCs between 1701 and 2010. The spectral analysis showed periodicities of ~2.6, 4, 5, 12, 16, 39 and 105 years, that coincide with some large-scale climatic phenomena and also with solar activity. In particular, the ~12-year cycle is the most persistent periodicity in our study.

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