Wednesday, November 5, 2014

New excuse for the "pause" of global warming #58: Colder eastern Pacific and reduced heat loss in other oceans

A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds excuse #58 for the 18-26 year "pause" or hiatus" of global warming: Colder eastern Pacific (30% contribution) and reduced heat loss in other oceans (70% contribution). So increased heat loss in the Pacific, and decreased heat loss in the Southern and subtropical Indian Oceans & subpolar North Atlantic allegedly "explain" the "pause." Natural ocean oscillations could explain this, but not a steady rise of greenhouse gases.

According to the authors, however,
"A different mechanism is important at longer timescales (1960s-present) over which the [natural] Southern Annular Mode trended upwards. In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies."

Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins

S. S. Drijfhout


The first decade of the twenty-first century was characterised by a hiatus in global surface warming. Using ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses we show that heat uptake between the 1990s and 2000s increased by 0.7 ± 0.3Wm−2. Approximately 30% of the increase is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Other basins contribute via reduced heat loss to the atmosphere, in particular the Southern and subtropical Indian Oceans (30%), and the subpolar North Atlantic (40%). A different mechanism is important at longer timescales (1960s-present) over which the Southern Annular Mode trended upwards. In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies.

4 comments:

  1. Don't knock this reason.

    The warming recorded between the mid-1970's and 2000 was the result of the opposite phase of the same oceanic oscillations that flip from cooling to warming to cooling again. The hiatus is the beginning of a cooling period.

    The warming between 1975 and 2000 was caused by natural oceanic oscillations and has been misinterpreted by alarmists as having been caused by CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.

    This is a natural mechanism that answers the argument from ignorance: Well if the warming is not caused by mankind, what causes it? We can't find any explanation so it must be AGW.


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    Replies
    1. I'm not knocking this explanation, just knocking any suggestion that AGW has anything to do with increased heat loss in one region and decreased heat loss in another region. Natural ocean oscillations are entirely consistent with such patterns, not AGW.

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    2. Yes, I know you are not knocking it. That was for my fellow-followers of your blog.

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  2. #59 - We lied! It was for the greater good , and OUR$

    ReplyDelete